5/20/2023 0 Comments Midterm election results by state![]() ![]() Barbara Comstock in Virginia's 10th District in the D.C. Pay closer attention to congressional races in Virginia and Georgia. It will draw a lot of attention, but national Democrats caution not to read too much into a loss there, because Trump won it by 15 points. ET, and that includes the key race in the 6th Congressional District. There are key races right off the bat with the Georgia governor's race, the Indiana Senate race and House races in Virginia and Kentucky, in particular. – Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia Find it here.īelow, organized by poll-closing time in Eastern Time, is an hour-by-hour cheat sheet for which races to really pay attention to that could unlock what happens later in the night:ħ p.m. We'll also have special coverage on the radio starting at 8 p.m. You can follow along on Twitter and Facebook. Our live coverage at npr.org will provide you the latest balance of power in Congress, as well as results from your state and county. NPR will provide live, up-to-the-minute results all night. Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to take back the House, Democrats need a net gain of two seats to flip the Senate and Democrats are expected to slice into Republicans' 33-16 advantage in governors' seats. With the numbers produced from the expected vote share, the model uses a normal distribution to produce the probability of a candidate receiving a larger vote share than their opposing candidate.Įlection Forecasting Models aren’t perfect, but they can help paint a picture of what the results may look like in November.There are dozens of competitive races across the country that will determine control of the House, Senate and governors' seats. The combination of the data determined the expected vote share for each candidate. ![]() When these data were not applicable, they were not used. The primary results were given the least weight. The approval ratings were given the second least weight. The ISLs were given the second most weight. The polling averages were given the most weight. The ISL, approval rating, primary results, and polling averages all were given weights to determine the expected vote share for each candidate. Polling averages from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, in combination with a likely voter weight and allocation of undecided voters, were used to determine the expected vote share for each candidate. The primary election results of 2022 were used to determine the expected vote share for every political party. ![]() Senator up for reelection, in combination with an incumbency bounce, likely voter weight, and allocation of undecided voters were used to determine the expected vote share for every incumbent and challenger. Morning Consults’ approval ratings of every U.S. House district map to determine the ISL for each U.S. The model incorporated FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean and Daily Kos’s 2020 presidential vote on the 2022 U.S. The ISL was created for each state and used past election results to determine what the expected vote share in each state would be in a perfectly equal national political environment. To develop an expected vote share for each candidate the model incorporates, the inherent state lean (ISL), approval rating, primary results, and polling averages are calculated. The 2022 Election Forecast Model takes into account polls on individual races, national sentiment towards each party, history of past midterm elections, and more to estimate the vote share of candidates in a race and the probability that they will win. This AllSides Interactive is a partnership between AllSides and Dodge Matthews. View latest news, polls, and examples of media bias in AllSides’ 2022 Midterm Elections live blog and view a map of key races to watch on our Election Topic page. ![]()
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